It turns out, seasonal flu outbreaks first appear each year about a week after the winter’s first cold spell—or at least that’s what happened in Sweden, over the course of three years when researchers tracked weather patterns and the prevalence of the virus.
During that time, researchers collected more than 20,000 nasal swabs from people seeking medical care in and around the city of Gothenburg, and analyzed them for influenza A and other respiratory viruses. Then they compared those findings with weather data from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
A surprisingly consistent pattern emerged: Each year, the first really cold week—with low humidity and temperatures below freezing—seemed to trigger the spread of flu.
“We believe that this sudden drop in temperature contributes to ‘kickstart’ the epidemic,” said lead author Nicklas Sundell, a researcher at Sahlgrenska Academy and infectious diseases specialist at Sahlgrenska University Hospital, in a press release. “Once the epidemic has started, it continues even if temperatures rise. Once people are sick and contagious, many more may become infected.”
Airborne particles containing liquid and virus—from a sneeze, for example—can spread more easily in cold and dry weather, say the study authors. Dry air absorbs moisture from the particles, shrinking them and helping them stay in the air longer and travel longer distances.
The study found that some other common respiratory infections, such as respiratory syncytial virus and coronavirus, followed similar, temperature-driven patterns. But others, like rhinovirus (one cause of the common cold), did not seem to be affected by the weather or season.
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